President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, reaching the key 50 percent support threshold in all three battlegrounds, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these states. In both Colorado and Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by 5 points among likely voters (including those […] Read more »
His Original Sin
… Romney’s biggest general-election problem is that he did not believe he could beat a GOP primary field with no competitor more formidable than Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich without tacking sharply right on key issues. Romney repeatedly took policy positions that minimized his risks during the spring but […] Read more »
Post-convention polling gives definitive view: Obama has consolidated his lead
Before the conventions, I wrote that “If Obama still leads by 1.5 points once the convention dust has settled, it’s difficult for me to envisage how Obama will lose.” We are now past the conventions and President Obama still leads. Any individual national poll is confusing, but the aggregate is […] Read more »
Gallup and Rasmussen v. World
The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. [cont.] Nate Cohn, New Republic Read more »
Persuadable Voters
Slightly more than a fifth of registered voters remain persuadable in their preferences for president, little changed from before the party conventions – and a continued sign that the 2012 election retains the potential to break open in either candidate’s direction. … In a regression analysis, holding demographic measures constant, […] Read more »
How to Solve the Swing-State Puzzle
… Using my FiveThirtyEight model, I’ve determined — through about 25,000 simulations that I run each day — which states could put either candidate over the top. … Which states, then, are the most strategically important? The answer exists along a spectrum rather than in absolutes. Ten states could play […] Read more »