… Want to fix an election? No problem. Just make up a story that the other side is trying to rig the election—and meanwhile try to rig the election. … Watergate was a struggle over the Constitutional powers and accountability of a president, and, alarmingly, the president and his aides […] Read more »
Can national polls predict House elections?
… In the past, the generic ballot has overstated Democratic support, as polls from 1992, 1988 and 1980 demonstrate. But the polls’ predictive power has increased in recent years. The best work on this has been done by Dartmouth’s Joseph Bafumi, Columbia’s Robert Erikson and Temple’s Christopher Wlezien. Their model […] Read more »
Romney’s Tricky Likeability Landscape
Going into this campaign Mitt Romney’s job was never going to be simple. It’s not easy to unseat an incumbent president – even one who has presided over a struggling economy. Voters typically have a long checklist of factors in mind when they consider whether a candidate is White House […] Read more »
The poll result that explains the election
Washington has been a bit perplexed by President Obama’s small but persistent lead in the polls. His administration would seem to fail the “Are you better off than you were four years ago” text [sic]. And presidents who fail that test lose, right? But perhaps that’s the wrong question. … […] Read more »
Who will Homer Simpson vote for?
Who will Homer Simpson vote for in the 2012 elections? Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? ANIMATIONonFOX Read more »
Measuring the Undecideds
For much of the year, head-to-head polls of President Obama and Mitt Romney have generated eerily consistent results: Obama garners a percentage in the high 40s but not at 50 percent, with Romney either tied or slightly behind. A small total — about 5 to 8 percent — remain undecided. […] Read more »