… Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump now hold comfortable leads in almost all the national polls and most state surveys, though Bernie Sanders is neck and neck with Clinton in the Granite State. What does history say about the predictive power of both the national polls and the state polls […] Read more »
Watch Out, Joe Biden, Polls Aren’t Kind To Candidates Who Enter Late
The Joe Biden buzz seems to be getting louder by the day. A Biden presidential run would be bad news for Hillary Clinton — even though he’s sitting in third place in Iowa, New Hampshire and national primary polls, behind both Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But if he runs, will […] Read more »
Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination
Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »
The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates
… What is happening now in the Republican primary is not that different from what happened in 2012. And despite the excitement and attention that Mr. Trump is generating, others who were in his same position four years ago fell out of the spotlight after several weeks of being the […] Read more »
The Angry American Voter
As Republicans take the stage in Cleveland for their first presidential primary debate tonight — with Donald Trump in the middle of it — one thing is already abundantly clear: A lot of voters are angry. Very angry. In fact, a lot of voters have been angry for some time. The […] Read more »
Trump’s Shaky Electoral Foundation
Though Trump is surging in national polling, that hasn’t always translated into success once voters start casting ballots. Donald Trump still has a way to go to become the next Rudolph Giuliani—or even the next Rick Perry. Though Trump has surged to the lead of the GOP field in national […] Read more »