Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican Party suffered a big political penalty for impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998. But that’s not quite right. Republicans paid a modest, short-term penalty, while the costs to the Democratic Party appear to have been larger and longer-lasting. … Two decades ago, the Republicans’ decision […] Read more »
The Risks of Impeachment Are Overblown
For months, the biggest hurdle for Democrats pushing the House to open impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump was the party leadership’s concern that such a process would politically endanger the members at the far edge of their majority, especially the 31 representing districts that voted for the president in 2016. […] Read more »
The Big Six Swing States in 2020
There are six states that will be key to winning the 2020 presidential election if it is at all close. Whoever wins most of them will in all likelihood win the presidency. The six are Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Donald Trump won Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and […] Read more »
Democrats Learned the Wrong Lesson From Clinton’s Impeachment
Democrats debating whether to impeach Donald Trump may be misreading the evidence from the last time the House tried to remove a president. It’s become conventional wisdom—not only among Democrats but also among many political analysts—that House Republicans paid a severe electoral price for moving against Bill Clinton in 1998, […] Read more »
How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?
People are already calling it an “October surprise” — an unexpected moment late in the campaign that could change the trajectory of the election. The news that the FBI is looking into a new batch of Hillary Clinton’s emails (found on the computer of Anthony Weiner) is certainly surprising. And […] Read more »
Surprises Almost Certain in Iowa and New Hampshire
The voters of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guard their first-in-the-nation franchise in the presidential nomination process, and they view themselves as the public’s screening committees for White House wannabes. … In 2016 it will be a shock if Iowa and/or New Hampshire don’t rearrange the presidential playing field. After […] Read more »