The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. … The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true […] Read more »
Would Republicans pay a price if they vote to impeach the president? Here’s what we know from 1974.
With the House likely to vote to impeach President Trump, what electoral repercussions (if any) would House or Senate Republicans face from their votes on whether to impeach the president or remove him from office? If some members of the GOP break ranks, would their constituents reward or punish them […] Read more »
The Clinton Legacy: Impeachment Hurts the President
Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican Party suffered a big political penalty for impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998. But that’s not quite right. Republicans paid a modest, short-term penalty, while the costs to the Democratic Party appear to have been larger and longer-lasting. … Two decades ago, the Republicans’ decision […] Read more »
How Impeachment Affects Vulnerable Democrats
House Democrats are on recess and back in their districts this week, gauging how their constituents are feeling about impeachment. Public opinion has moved toward support of the impeachment inquiry, but many Democratic strategists remain especially concerned that the 31 House Democrats who represent districts that backed President Donald Trump […] Read more »
Impeachment Is Important — But Don’t Expect It to Matter Much in 2020
… Congressional elections expert Gary Jacobson of UC San Diego concluded at the time that “the results of the 1998 elections are in no way extraordinary. . . . [they] are about what we would expect if no one had ever heard of Monica Lewinsky.” If Clinton’s impeachment didn’t really […] Read more »
The Risks of Impeachment Are Overblown
For months, the biggest hurdle for Democrats pushing the House to open impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump was the party leadership’s concern that such a process would politically endanger the members at the far edge of their majority, especially the 31 representing districts that voted for the president in 2016. […] Read more »