When your presidential candidate is not doing well, it’s not uncommon to look around for historical analogies in which a similarly downtrodden candidate has made a dramatic comeback to win. … So observers looking about for an example Trump might yet emulate are going back 68 years, to Harry Truman’s […] Read more »
Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did: 50%
Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden’s close to 50% (49%), while […] Read more »
A Party Divided Is a Party Defeated — Usually
The question is no longer whether the GOP will be torn apart by the 2016 nominating process but how badly hurt its presidential nominee will be and whether defeat in November will be inevitable. The answer depends on the nominee and on the ultimate extent of the divide. But there […] Read more »