House Republicans’ Drive to 35

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Key Points
• With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy majority in the House in 2022 — perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century.
• However, compared to past Republican midterm wave cycles, specifically 1994 and 2010, Republicans probably have less room for growth.
• As a majority of states have enacted new maps, we can chart out what a banner night for House Republicans may look like. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Don’t rule out a GOP Senate wave

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As usual, Democrats are fighting among themselves — this time about what to do with the Senate filibuster. …

The irony here is that while some Democrats worry that carving out an exception to the filibuster might set a bad precedent, the imbalance in the three Senate classes, which I wrote about in May, may give Republicans a chance at a filibuster-proof majority during the 2024 elections, when the Senate map strongly favors the GOP. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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Military Brass, Judges Among Professions at New Image Lows

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Gallup’s annual rating of the honesty and ethics of various professions finds five of the 22 occupations rated this year at new lows in public esteem. While the majority of Americans continue to believe military officers have high ethics (61%), the score is down 10 percentage points since it was last measured, in 2017. TV reporters’ ethics rating has fallen nine points to 14% over the same period, and judges’ has declined five points to 38%. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Why Republicans aren’t likely to lose any Senate seats in 2022

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Wisconsin’s Republican Sen. Ron Johnson announced he was running for reelection on Sunday. That should be viewed as good news by Republicans, who need a net gain of just one seat in this year’s midterm elections to wrestle Senate control from the Democrats.

While we don’t know what the outcome of this year’s elections will be, history suggests that Johnson is likely to win and Republicans will not lose any of the seats they control to Democrats. Why? Because the opposition party rarely loses Senate seats in midterms when those states had leaned toward them in previous presidential elections.

Let’s start with Wisconsin. President Joe Biden won it in 2020, but only by 0.6 percentage point. He won nationally by 4.5 points. In other words, the state voted nearly 4 points to the right of the nation. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Biden’s economic message needs a reality check

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… Per our Jan. 2-4 Winning the Issues survey, our first of the year, what we’re seeing isn’t a “failure to communicate” on the part of Biden, his administration and congressional Democrats, but a failure to connect with the reality most Americans are facing and the priorities people want addressed. …

When asked which was the more important priority for the country, 66 percent said it was dealing with inflation and the scarcity of goods caused by supply chain problems, while only 25 percent picked passing Biden’s Build Back Better plan. Among independents, the gulf was even wider at 69 percent to 19 percent. …

Biden and the progressive elites, especially in Washington, simply have no idea what life is like for working-class folks. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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U.S. Economic Optimism Tumbles As Investors Turn Gloomy: IBD/TIPP

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Optimism about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy dived to an 18-month low as omicron case-levels exploded and inflation continued to hit generational highs, the new IBD/TIPP Poll finds. The major shift came among investors, who are suddenly feeling more bearish about the U.S. economic outlook than they’ve been in more than five years. CONTINUED

Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily