Biden approval rating drops to a new low of 41%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

· Leave a Comment

President Joe Biden’s public approval rating fell to the lowest level of his presidency this week, a danger sign for his Democratic Party which risks losing control of Congress in the Nov. 8 elections, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. The national poll, conducted Feb. 2-3, found that 41% of U.S. adults approved of Biden’s performance in office, while 56% disapproved and the rest were not sure. …

About six in ten think the country is heading in the wrong direction, with the economy and public health most often cited as top concerns, the poll showed. CONTINUED

Jason Lange, Reuters

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biggest Threat to GOP Senate Chances Is a Fumble

· Leave a Comment

… Thanks to several factors, including Pres. Biden’s sagging job approval rating numbers, the nagging presence of COVID and rising inflation, Republicans have a strong field position. Democrats control all the levers of power in DC, which means they also take all the blame when things aren’t going well. Meanwhile, GOP voters are fired up, while Democratic voters are more ‘meh.’

But, like any team holding the ball in the ‘red zone,’ the biggest threat to the GOP right now is a fumble or a turnover.

One of the easiest ways to turn over the ball is by over-reaching. Or, to torture this football analogy a bit more, by trying some fancy trick play instead of just running the ball 2 yards to the end zone.

One clear ‘over-reach’ risk is the upcoming hearings for a new Supreme Court Justice. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Over half of Americans report disapproval of Joe Biden’s presidential performance

· Leave a Comment

This week’s Ipsos’ Core Political shows that Americans remain divided about the main problem facing the nation, with crime and corruption concerning more Americans than at the beginning of the year. Over half of Americans report disapproval of Joe Biden’s presidential performance.

As was seen a couple of weeks ago when Ipsos last asked this question, nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track, a sentiment felt most strongly by Republicans (86%) and independents (67%).

Remaining unchanged from last week, a quarter of Americans say they view the economy, unemployment and jobs as the most important issue facing the country (25%). CONTINUED

Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Does Biden Have a Second Act?

· Leave a Comment

After a difficult first two years in the White House, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama each rebuilt enough public support to win a second term—not long after many observers had labeled them fatally damaged by their early setbacks.

Although the specific environment and challenges confronting those three presidents diverged in many ways, the trajectory of each man’s first term followed the same broad arc. Each was elected at a moment of great unease about the country’s direction, particularly in terms of the economy. Each saw his approval rating tumble over his first two years, as voters concluded that conditions were not improving as fast as they had expected, or at least hoped. For all three, that decline culminated in big losses during their first midterm election (especially for Clinton and Obama). But in the second half of each man’s first term, public attitudes about the country’s direction improved, lifting the president’s approval rating. Just two years after their midterm reversals, all three won reelection, Clinton and Obama by solid margins and Reagan by a historic 49-state landslide. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Financial Progress Still Eluding Americans

· Leave a Comment

Americans’ belief that they are making financial progress has yet to recover after slumping last year. Forty-one percent of U.S. adults now say they are better off financially than a year ago. That is up slightly from 35% in January 2021 but still well below the record-high 59% reporting they were better off in January 2020, right before the start of the coronavirus pandemic. …

As is typical, Americans’ forecast for whether they will be financially better or worse off next year is positive, with 60% expecting to be better off and 27% worse off. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Why Voter Suppression Probably Won’t Work

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout.
• However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote margins at the state level in the 2020 presidential election.
• Both voter turnout and voting decisions in 2020 were driven by the strong preferences held by the large majority of voters between the major party candidates. CONTINUED

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack