Will Asian Americans Bolt From the Democratic Party?

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Over the past three decades, Asian American voters — the fastest-growing group in the country according to Pew — have shifted from decisively supporting Republicans to becoming a reliably Democratic bloc, anchored by firmly liberal views on key national issues.

The question now is whether this party loyalty will withstand politically divisive developments that appear to pit Asian Americans against other key Democratic constituencies — as controversies emerge, for example, over progressive education policies that show signs of decreasing access to top schools for Asian Americans in order to increase access for Black and Hispanic students. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Fox News Poll: Most reject a 2020 mulligan

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There isn’t much enthusiasm for a 2020 presidential rematch.

About a third of voters, 32%, want President Biden to run for re-election (64% say no), while 40% want former President Trump to run again in 2024 (56% say no). There is little overlap between those two “yes” groups: just 8% want both Biden and Trump as the candidates in the next presidential election.

That’s according to the latest Fox News poll, conducted Feb. 19-22 — before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Biden’s first State of the Union speech. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Biden’s State of the Union: a swing and a miss

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Watching Tuesday night’s State of the Union, one might think that President Joe Biden is currently enjoying a positive job approval and an electorate that thinks the country is on the right track.

Neither is true. …

There was no reset. No acknowledgment that “mistakes were made.” No willingness to consider more centrist policies that might actually facilitate unity and bipartisanship. … While Biden’s Democratic support has eroded, by refusing to reconsider the liberal policies that voters have clearly rejected, the message Biden sent to independents was clear: “You and your concerns don’t matter” — a total misreading of the electorate that will likely have serious consequences for his party this fall. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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Do SOTU speeches change opinion?

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Pomp and circumstance returned just in time for President Biden to deliver an outstanding State of the Union address (SOTU) yesterday. …

While it was a great speech, don’t overestimate its likely impact. Rarely do State of the Union speeches yield significant or lasting effect on presidents’ approval ratings. While these speeches generate vast coverage, the central tendency is for these annual national rituals to leave only a barely perceptible trace in the public consciousness. …

Nonetheless, by the time you read this, you’ll probably be swimming in instant polls purporting to portend big shifts in public attitudes. Pro tip: That almost always happens, and usually portends nothing. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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Wisconsin: Poll finds inflation fears up, pandemic fears down; primary candidates not yet well known

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With just more than five months until Wisconsin’s Aug. 9 primary election, a new Marquette Law School Poll survey of state voters finds that about half of both Republican and Democratic voters say they don’t know whom they support in the races for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate and the Republican nomination for governor.

Small percentages of voters have opinions about any of the candidates with two exceptions. Even in the case of those two candidates, no more than half of voters have an opinion, favorable or unfavorable.

The poll finds 51% of registered voters saying they don’t know whom they will support in the Republican primary for governor or the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Forty-six percent say they support one of the current candidates, with the remainder saying they won’t vote in a primary or will vote for someone else or declining to say. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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About Half Say U.S. Military Is No. 1 in the World

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About one in six Americans (16%) say the U.S. is No. 1 in the world economically, rather than just one of several leading economic powers. They are much more likely to view it as the No. 1 military power (51%), a consistent pattern in Gallup’s trend dating back to 1993. …

More than two in three Americans say it is important for the U.S. to be No. 1 militarily. … Republicans are more likely to prioritize U.S. dominance, both militarily and economically. In the latest poll, 88% of Republicans say that being the leading military power is important, while much smaller majorities of independents (64%) and Democrats (55%) agree. CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

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