Biden Job Approval Down Most Among Younger Generations

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Joe Biden’s recent job approval ratings, which are averaging 14 points lower than those early in his presidency, have declined far more among younger than older generations of Americans. In fact, Biden’s job approval has changed relatively little among baby boomers and not at all among traditionalists. As a result, older Americans are now more likely to approve of the president than younger Americans are. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Trump-District House Democrats Could Become Extinct This November

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Key Points
• The number of “crossover” districts — those won by different parties for president and House — has generally been declining over time.
• Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats.
• Based on the new district lines, and with a few states still outstanding, there are currently 16 incumbents running in districts that their party did not win for president: 11 Republicans in Biden seats and 5 Democrats in Trump seats.
• The Democrats may not hold a single Trump district next year, and the Republicans very well could hold many more Biden-won seats. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crossover House districts as percentage of total districts, 1964-2020

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Trump Poses a Test Democracy Is Failing

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Ordinary citizens play a critical role in maintaining democracy. They refuse to re-elect — at least in theory — politicians who abuse their power, break the rules and reject the outcome of elections they lose. How is it, then, that Donald Trump, who has defied these basic presumptions, stands a reasonable chance of winning a second term in 2024?

Milan W. Svolik, a political scientist at Yale, anticipated this question in his 2019 paper “Polarization versus Democracy”: “Voters in democracies have at their disposal an essential instrument of democratic self-defense: elections. They can stop politicians with authoritarian ambitions by simply voting them out of office.”

What might account for their failure to do so? CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Biden’s approval falls to new low amid economic pessimism, inflation woes, CNBC survey finds

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Americans harbor some of the most downbeat views on the economy since the recovery from the Great Recession, and some of their attitudes are in line with those seen only during recessions, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

Amid soaring inflation, 47% of the public say the economy is “poor,” the highest number in that category since 2012. Only 17% rank the economy as excellent or good, the lowest since 2014.

Only one in five Americans describe their personal financial situation as “getting ahead,” the weakest showing in eight years. CONTINUED

Steve Liesman, CNBC

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Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?

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Key Points
• Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.
• President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”
• Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is very likely to be smaller than in some past GOP wave years simply because the Democratic majority is already so small.
• The composition of this year’s Senate map gives the Democrats a fighting chance to hold their majority there. CONTINUED

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Categorizing midterm results for president’s party, 1946-2018

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Economic Pessimism Loosens Grip, Despite High Inflation

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Americans’ dour economic mood in the face of the high inflation rate may be beginning to thaw, the April IBD/TIPP Poll finds.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, an early monthly read on consumer confidence, jumped 4.5 points to 45.5, bouncing from March’s eight-year low to the highest level of 2022. Still, pessimism maintained its grip for an eighth straight month. Readings above the neutral 50 level reflect optimism. CONTINUED

Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily

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