Polling in an Era of Political Polarization

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I’m often asked about the value of national public opinion polling in an era of rigid political polarization and within a system where members of the U.S. House and Senate are elected at the district and state level, not in national elections. Certainly, polling keeps the people of the nation informed about each other and helps fulfill our natural interest in what others think and feel. But national polling is, or should be, important for the nation’s elected representatives as well, as I will explain. CONTINUED

Frank Newport, Gallup

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The education culture war is raging. But for most parents, it’s background noise

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Math textbooks axed for their treatment of race; a viral Twitter account directing ire at LGBTQ teachers; a state law forbidding classroom discussion of sexual identity in younger grades; a board book for babies targeted as “pornographic.” Lately it seems there’s a new controversy erupting every day over how race, gender or history are tackled in public school classrooms.

But for most parents, these concerns seem to be far from top of mind. That’s according to a new national poll by NPR and Ipsos. By wide margins – and regardless of their political affiliation – parents express satisfaction with their children’s schools and what is being taught in them. CONTINUED

Anya Kamenetz, NPR News

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Racial split on COVID-19 endures as restrictions ease in US

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Black and Hispanic Americans remain far more cautious in their approach to COVID-19 than white Americans, recent polls show, reflecting diverging preferences on how to deal with the pandemic as federal, state and local restrictions fall by the wayside.

Despite majority favorability among U.S. adults overall for measures like mask mandates, public health experts said divided opinions among racial groups reflect not only the unequal impact of the pandemic on people of color but also apathy among some white Americans. CONTINUED

Annie Ma & Hannah Fingerhut, Associated Press

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Independents favor the GOP right now, poll finds

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Six months out from the midterm election, Republicans running for Congress are enjoying the strongest public support they have seen in a decade, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. As President Joe Biden struggles to gain political momentum, the GOP is also getting more favorable marks on key issues like inflation — signaling challenging, if not dismal, days ahead for the Democratic Party.

Roughly half of U.S. adults — 47 percent — said they would support a Republican candidate if the 2022 midterm election was held today, and slightly fewer — 44 percent — back the Democrats. Republicans have strong support among independents who break toward the GOP by 7 points, and only one in 10 say they’re still undecided on which party to support. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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The 2024 Waiting Game

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For months now, discussions about 2024 have mostly focused on whether Donald Trump will run for president. This framing works out well for both Trump and the political media: Trump gets the spotlight he craves, and the political media gets the clicks and eyeballs they need.

But, the far more exciting and consequential question is whether or not Pres. Joe Biden will be on the ballot in 2024. …

Consciously or not, many voters, including many Democrats, voted for Biden in 2020, assuming that he would be a one-term president. They weren’t thinking about the logistical and political difficulties that a one-term presidency would pose to the party in four years. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Personal Finance Ratings Slide Amid Rising Prices

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Many fewer Americans now than a year ago rate their financial situation positively and more say their finances are getting worse than say they are improving. A record-high percentage mention inflation as the biggest financial problem facing their family. Meanwhile, about half say recent gas price increases have caused hardship for their family, well below what Gallup has measured during other times of rising fuel prices. The subdued reaction to gas price hikes may reflect that Americans expect those changes to be temporary rather than permanent. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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