The Biden effect is real

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… Weeks of Biden’s disingenuous statements on inflation are now costing him precious capital with voters. In NBC News’ latest poll, released Sunday, people said the country was going off on the wrong track by a margin of 75 percent wrong track to 16 percent right track. Biden himself sunk to a new low in the poll, with a 51 percent negative rating to 37 percent positive.

But we’re beginning to see the Biden effect extend beyond the president’s own unpopularity to both congressional Democrats and the federal government itself. The poll found that Democrats in Congress are down 19 points in their net negative rating, which, according to NBC, is the highest net negative rating Democrats have received “in the 30 years that the poll has been conducted.” Not a good harbinger for the upcoming elections. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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President Biden’s approval rating is at 42% again this week

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains stable at 42% on this week’s Ipsos’ Core Political.

The economy (28%) continues to be the most important issue facing the country with 35% of Republicans, 27% of independents, and 22% of Democrats saying so. In distant second place is a three-way tie between immigration (8%), crime (8%), and the environment (8%). Republicans (14%) are most likely to believe immigration is an important problem, compared to only 2% of Democrats and 7% of independents. Meanwhile, Democrats (14%) are more likely to believe the environment is one of the most important issues, while only 3% of Republicans and 7% of independents agree. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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One in three Americans say that COVID-19 is over

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Although cases are rising again across the U.S., neither behaviors nor risk perceptions have shifted for Americans since April. The latest wave of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index finds that one in three Americans say that COVID-19 is over, though perceptions vary drastically across party lines and by vaccination status. The poll also finds that for a plurality, their top concern at the moment is spreading the virus to people who are at higher risk of serious illness, rather than something happening to them personally. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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What the Primaries Reveal About the Future of Trumpism

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For all the talk about how Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates would fare in the Republican primaries this year, the results in this week’s races made clear: Whatever happens to Trump’s personal influence, Trumpism is consolidating its dominance of the GOP. …

As the Republican electorate shifts away from the kinds of voters who might have resisted Trump, the party’s tilt toward Trumpism has become self-perpetuating. Trumpism, it seems, no longer depends on Trump himself. …

What does this mean for the future direction of the GOP? The challenge for the small remnant of Republican candidates who resist Trump—or even those who want to support his general direction without personally bending the knee to him—is that these changes have shrunk the audience for any alternative path. As voters who are uneasy with Trumpism—largely college-educated suburbanites in metropolitan areas—have drifted away from the party, the core left behind is more receptive to Trump-style arguments. And the more that GOP primaries produce Trump-style candidates, the less likely center-right voters will be to vote in such elections at all. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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CNN Poll: Most Americans are concerned about the US and ‘burned out’ on politics

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Americans across political lines are united in their generally negative feelings about the US and its politics, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, with Democrats particularly unlikely to express political enthusiasm.

Just 14% of Americans say they’re either excited (4%) or optimistic (10%) about the way things are going in the country, with 65% calling themselves concerned and another 21% saying they’re scared. Only about one-quarter, 23%, call themselves “fired up” about politics, with 53% describing themselves as burned out. And roughly one-third, 32%, say they feel their side is currently losing more than winning in politics, with just 9% feeling that they’re mostly on the winning side. …

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS on May 12 and 13 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults surveyed by text message after being recruited using probability-based methods. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta & Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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Biden’s ‘MAGA Republicans’ is a meh-ga slogan

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… The underlying political logic behind attacking “MAGA Republicans” is sound. Large chunks of the GOP are ensnared in a Trumpian cabal that is about a cult of personality rather than policy issues.

It may have taken the Biden team six months (and probably dozens of meetings) to realize that the 2022 election is, in effect, a referendum on the future of democracy rather than a routine fight over diverging economic policies. But trying to use the Trump slogan “Make America Great Again” as a Biden boomerang is too clever by half. It’s like getting caught up with the alliteration in the ungainly “Build Back Better.” …

We have long exaggerated the power of campaign consultants in both parties to cloud the minds of voters. In high-profile races, most TV ads cancel each other out. And it’s hard to think of any slogan in any off-year election in this century that made a difference. CONTINUED

Walter Shapiro, Roll Call

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