Democrats Biggest Opponent In 2022: Economic Headwinds

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… In a year where the environment is relatively neutral, the specific candidates matter more. But, in a year like this one, where more than 70 percent of Americans think the country in on the wrong track, where inflation is at a 30-40 year high, and where a stubbornly strong virus continues to wreak havoc on our health and the global economy, the environment is anything but neutral. Democrats, who are the party in power at this moment, are going to get the blame. It’s not that complicated. …

Given these challenges for Democrats, one GOP strategist said to me the other day, “Even our candidates can’t screw this up.” Democrats, of course, are hoping otherwise. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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State gun laws and public opinion

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Public opinion substantially favors allowing concealed carry of handguns with a permit or license required. This is true of both a Constitutional right under the Second Amendment and as a matter of law. In contrast, there is substantial majority opposition to laws allowing concealed carry without a licensing requirement. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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The consensus of dissensus

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After multiple violent mass shootings in recent weeks, we, yet again, return to the topic of gun control and the role it plays in our tribalized divided time. These incidences of mass violence have become all too familiar in recent years. Guns are at the center of our hyper-partisan world, politically, legislatively, and culturally.

Are real solutions possible? Where does the public stand on gun control? Will Buffalo and Uvalde be turning points? Right now, there is some consensus on gun control across party, but there is also significant division. What’s more, our data shows real skepticism that their elected officials will make change. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

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Views on semiautomatic weapons remain partisan

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Fifty-one percent of Americans favor a nationwide ban on the sale of AR-15 rifles and similar semiautomatic assault weapons, while 32% are opposed. An additional 18% hold neither opinion.

The poll was conducted May 12-16, the same weekend of the shooting at a Tops supermarket in Buffalo, New York. Roughly three-quarters of the interviews were conducted before the racist attack that killed 10 Black adults and injured three more.

Most Democrats, regardless of ideology, favor a ban on AR-15 rifles and similar semiautomatic weapons. Though 58% of Republicans oppose the ban, there are stark differences depending on ideology. Sixty-nine percent of conservative Republicans oppose such a ban. However moderate and liberal Republicans are more closely divided: 42% favor a ban on semiautomatic weapons and 38% oppose. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Americans Remain Steadfast on Policing Reform Needs in 2022

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Two years after George Floyd’s murder by Minneapolis police, half of Americans (50%) support “major changes” to policing in the U.S., and another 39% favor “minor changes.” Black Americans (72%) remain more likely than White (44%) and Hispanic adults (54%) to say major changes are needed. About nine in 10 or more in each group say at least minor reforms are needed. CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

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How long are Americans sad and angry about mass shootings? Four days.

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Americans woke up on Wednesday morning feeling some combination of deep sadness and intense anger. The feeling was shared throughout the country. Americans are grieving. …

As overwhelming as the feeling is now, the available evidence suggests that it will fade into the background within about four days. This means we have four days in which to act on it. Four days to take steps that might help prevent the next Uvalde or Sandy Hook or Parkland or Columbine massacre before we move on, before we return to the immediate concerns of our own lives — and before the urge to take on an intractable problem loses the emotion that can fuel momentum.

I came to this conclusion after working with a unique daily survey conducted by Gallup. CONTINUED

Patrick Sharkey (Princeton), Washington Post

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