California is about to experience a political earthquake. Here’s why

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An earthquake is building in Tuesday’s California elections that could rattle the political landscape from coast to coast. In Los Angeles and San Francisco, two of the nation’s most liberal large cities, voters are poised to send stinging messages of discontent over mounting public disorder, as measured in both upticks in certain kinds of crime and pervasive homelessness.

That dissatisfaction could translate into the recall of San Francisco’s left-leaning district attorney, Chesa Boudin, likely by a resounding margin, and a strong showing in the Los Angeles mayoral primary by Rick Caruso, a billionaire real estate developer and former Republican who has emerged as the leading alternative in the race to Democratic US Rep. Karen Bass, once considered the front-runner.

Linking both these contests — as well as several Los Angeles City Council races and an ongoing effort to recall George Gascon, Los Angeles County’s left-leaning district attorney — is a widespread sense among voters in both cities that local government is failing at its most basic responsibility: to ensure public safety and order. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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Winning Back The Factory Towns That Made Trumpism Possible

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… Small and midsized counties with a big manufacturing presence, what we have come to call Factory Towns, are at the heart of a concerted long-term push by the rightwing to fundamentally reshape American politics, and they should be at the heart of a progressive strategy to win a long-term governing majority.

We have done our best to explore the evidence from polling, focus groups, voter file analysis, discussions with organizers on the ground in these states, and other data on these questions in an unbiased way. And we have sought to provide meaningful answers that progressive organizers and organizations, office holders, party committees, and candidates at the local, state, and national level can use in their efforts to organize and communicate to the people in these counties.

Based on the evidence we have examined, we believe that this is a challenging mission, given that the level of cynicism and disaffection from mainstream politics runs deep. The way forward will not be quick or easy. But we believe the research we have done indicates a messaging and organizing path forward that will allow progressives to re-engage these voters and win a lot of them to our side. CONTINUED

Mike Lux, American Family Voices

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Americans’ Views of Government: Decades of Distrust, Enduring Support for Its Role

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Americans remain deeply distrustful of and dissatisfied with their government. Just 20% say they trust the government in Washington to do the right thing just about always or most of the time – a sentiment that has changed very little since former President George W. Bush’s second term in office.

The public’s criticisms of the federal government are many and varied. Some are familiar: Just 6% say the phrase “careful with taxpayer money” describes the federal government extremely or very well; another 21% say this describes the government somewhat well. A comparably small share (only 8%) describes the government as being responsive to the needs of ordinary Americans. …

There are deep divides between Democrats and Republicans on the role of the federal government across many of the 12 issues included in the survey. The largest gap is on protecting the environment. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Voters in the middle are critical to watch in the Jan. 6 debate

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In our increasingly polarized politics, the middle of the electorate — swing voters, independents and soft partisans — has become crucial in measuring public opinion. If you don’t have the middle on your side in a particular debate, you’re not going to get a majority of public support, or close to it.

And that’s true from the results of our most recent NBC News poll, where just 41 percent of independents say they hold former President Donald Trump “solely” or “mainly responsible for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Abortion Poised to Be a Bigger Voting Issue Than in Past

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More U.S. voters this year than in any past election year indicate that abortion will be an important factor in their vote for major offices. Twenty-seven percent of registered voters say that a candidate must share their views on abortion to receive their vote, which is the highest measured in any election year. At the other end of the spectrum, 16% say abortion will not be a major issue in their vote, nine percentage points lower than Gallup has measured in any prior election year. As is typical, the largest percentage, 54%, say abortion will be one of many important factors in their vote. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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How Big Is the Problem at the U.S. Border?

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… Roughly 455 million adults live in the 33 countries that make up Latin America and the Caribbean. Gallup has surveyed almost all of them for the past 15 years, asking adults in these countries if they would like to move to another country permanently if they could. In 2021, 37% said “yes.” This means roughly 169 million Latin Americans would like to migrate somewhere.

Gallup then asked where they would like to move. Of those who want to leave their country permanently, 36% — or 62 million — said they want to go to the United States. CONTINUED

Jim Clifton, Gallup

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