Fox News Poll: Voters say the economy is bad, and they expect it will get worse

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Almost all voters are worried about inflation, large numbers continue to rate the economy negatively — and a majority expects things will be worse next year.

The latest Fox News survey also finds both Democrats and Republicans are equally motivated to vote, and that if the midterm election were today, 41% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 44% the Republican. …

According to Fox News modeling, a 3-point edge translates into a GOP gain of about 23 seats. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Chuck Grassley holds 8-point lead over Mike Franken in US Senate race, Iowa Poll finds

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Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Mike Franken by 8 percentage points among likely Iowa voters, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll — a first look at what could be Grassley’s most competitive election since 1980.

Grassley leads 47% to 39% against Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, in the latest poll, conducted July 10-13 by Selzer & Co. Another 7% of likely voters say they would vote for someone else, 2% say they would not vote and 5% say they are not sure.

While Grassley leads Franken, the margin is narrower than in any Iowa Poll matchup involving Grassley since he was first elected to the U.S. Senate. CONTINUED

Stephen Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register [via Yahoo News]

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A rough week for Biden. How much will it affect Democrats in November?

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They say that bad news often comes in batches, and that was the case for President Biden this past week: a bleak new poll, another gloomy inflation report and a legislative setback. As he traveled through the Middle East, the home front remained on fire politically. …

Biden being a drag on Democrats this fall is without question, and he’s done nothing over the past few months to change that. If anything, his standing has weakened. If this election is purely a referendum on the president, Democrats will suffer and perhaps suffer significantly.

The question remains how much. And on that, Republicans are not doing much to help themselves and Trump could make it worse. CONTINUED

Dan Balz, Washington Post

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The Key Insights From Our First Poll of the 2022 Midterms

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Which side has the most energy heading into November? More polls will come as the midterm elections near, but for now we’ve wrapped up our first New York Times/Siena survey, and here are some notable takeaways:

Voters are not happy. Just 13 percent of registered voters said America was heading in the right direction. Only 10 percent said the economy was excellent or good. And a majority of voters said the nation was too politically divided to solve its challenges. As a point of comparison, each of these figures shows a more pessimistic electorate than in October 2020, when the pandemic was still raging and Donald J. Trump was president. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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Many red-state Trump voters say they’d be ‘better off’ if their state seceded from U.S.

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Red-state Donald Trump voters are now more likely to say they’d be personally “better off” (33%) than “worse off” (29%) if their state seceded from the U.S. and “became an independent country,” according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

It’s a striking rejection of national unity that dramatizes the growing culture war between Democratic- and Republican-controlled states on core issues such as guns, abortion and democracy itself. And an even larger share of red-state Trump voters say their state as a whole would be better off (35%) rather than worse off (30%) if it left the U.S. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK

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The fastest inflation in four decades has Americans feeling dour about the economy, even as their own finances have, so far, held up relatively well.

Just 10 percent of registered voters say the U.S. economy is “good” or “excellent,” according to a New York Times/Siena College poll — a remarkable degree of pessimism at a time when wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. But the rapidly rising cost of food, gas and other essentials is wiping out pay increases and eroding living standards.

Americans’ grim outlook is bad news for President Biden and congressional Democrats heading into this fall’s midterm elections, given that 78 percent of voters say inflation will be “extremely important” when they head to the polls. CONTINUED

Ben Casselman & Lydia DePillis, New York Times

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