AARP Poll of 56 Most Competitive Congressional Districts Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress, Voters Focused on Pocketbook Issues

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Today, AARP released the findings of a poll of likely voters from the 56 most competitive congressional districts for 2022. The survey found a generic Republican candidate with 4-point advantage over the generic Democratic candidate and that voters age 50 and over make up over 60% of likely voters in these districts and will likely play a key role in deciding the outcome of the midterm elections. …

Inflation and rising prices are the top concern for likely voters 18+ and 50+. Social Security, retirement savings, Medicare, the cost of prescription drugs and long-term care are also important to both voters 18+ and 50+, but particularly important to older voters, regardless of political party. CONTINUED

AARP

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CNN Poll: Most Americans believe that government and society can take action on preventing mass shootings

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Americans’ belief that society and government can do something about mass shootings is at a new high, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Most of the public favors stricter gun laws, the survey finds, with more than 4 in 10 saying that recently enacted gun legislation doesn’t go far enough to change things. …

Nearly 7 in 10 US adults (69%) say that government and society can take action that will be effective in preventing shootings like the one in Uvalde from happening again, with 30% saying that shootings like the one in Uvalde will happen again regardless of what action is taken by government and society. CONTINUED

Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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Secret memo links citizenship question to apportionment

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Trump officials tried to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census in a move experts said would benefit Republicans despite initial doubts among some in the administration that it was legal, according to an investigative report released Wednesday by a congressional oversight committee.

The report offers a smoking gun of sorts — a secret memo the committee obtained after a two-year legal battle — showing that a top Trump appointee in the Commerce Department explored apportionment as a reason to include the question. CONTINUED

Mike Schneider, Associated Press

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How You Feel About Gender Roles Can Tell Us How You’ll Vote

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The phenomenon of the gender gap — the fact that women as a whole are more supportive of the Democratic Party than men are — masks significant divisions in the American electorate. …

It almost goes without saying, but men and women who support traditional gender roles for men and women lean strongly toward the Republican Party; men and women who question traditional gender roles and who are sympathetic to women’s rights lean strongly to the Democratic Party.

The public reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v Wade last month reflects this divide. A June 24-25 CBS/YouGov survey found that women disagreed with the Dobbs decision 67-33 while men disapproved by 51-39. The gap is there, but we need to think about it in different terms.

The emergence of these two coalitions adds to our understanding of the pervasive polarization between left and right that dominates American politics. And it doesn’t just divide the electorate; it also has a huge impact on public policymaking. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Approval of the Supreme Court at new lows; strong partisan differences over abortion, gun rights

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of the U.S. Supreme Court has fallen to 38%, while 61% disapprove of how the Court is handling its job. In May, 44% approved and 55% disapproved, and in March, 54% approved and 45% disapproved. …

Over the past three years, perceptions of the Court in ideological terms have shifted substantially in the conservative direction. In this most recent poll, less than half as many see the Court as “moderate” compared to perceptions in September 2019, and almost seven times as many say it is “very conservative” as was the case in September 2019.

Confidence in the Court has decreased since 2019, although the public continues to express more confidence in it than in Congress or the presidency. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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Which Elected Leaders Should Do More on Climate? Here’s What Americans Say.

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It’ll take some time to understand how Americans view last week’s collapse of climate legislation in Congress, but previous data holds some clues. When asked which elected officials should do more on climate, Americans point to Congress, according to recent surveys by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. …

“People do understand, I think generally, that the president is not a king,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, who led the study and directs the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. “It takes Congress to actually pass the laws and dedicate the money.” CONTINUED

Mira Rojanasakul & Catrin Einhorn, New York Times

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