Reassessing the Race for the Senate

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Key Points
• In an election where Republicans are banking on the environment while Democrats are banking on differences in candidate quality, Republicans are relying on a very inexperienced group of candidates.
• Compared to 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate, the party’s non-incumbent candidates are incredibly green.
• Democrats, meanwhile, are running a number of incumbents and current officeholders in competitive races, although holding office, in many instances, comes with a voting record that opponents can exploit.
• The quality of candidates on the Republican side is such an issue that we think the race for the Senate majority is basically a Toss-up. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Senate ratings

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Trump Has Big Plans for 2025, and He Doesn’t Care Whether You Think He’ll Win

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As he contemplates a third straight run for the presidency, Donald Trump has a multimillion-dollar political machine and a network of tax-exempt advocacy groups at his disposal. He also has a plan. The plan is to wrest control of the federal government from what he sees as a policy apparatus dominated by “radical left-wing Democrats.”

While many in Washington were arguing (or hoping) that Trump was fading, Trump himself outlined his agenda for a second term in a speech at the America First Policy Institute last week. …

The so-called Trump-in-waiting PACs and tax-exempt advocacy groups not only ensure that Trump would enter the 2024 presidential race with an immense bankroll, but, in contrast to the 2016 campaign and to his four years at the White House, he would be armed with a set of policy and personnel goals designed to institutionalize his dominance. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Who gave Democrats the edge on the generic ballot?

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Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. …

With the overturn of Roe v. Wade and recent mass shootings at Uvalde and Highland Park, this analysis suggests that abortion and crime/gun violence are issues motivating parts of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uncommitted to participating in the midterms. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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Trump is losing ground in the 2024 primary. Here’s why.

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Donald Trump leads in primary polls and is well-liked by his party — but his position is worse than it was a year ago. Surveys show half of Republican voters are considering other candidates. Candidates endorsed by the former president have lost in Georgia, Idaho, Nebraska, North Carolina and South Carolina. And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is gaining ground in primary polls, emerging as a plausible challenger for the nomination.

Why has Trump’s position deteriorated?

One reason: Trump used to take positions that helped him stand out from other leading Republicans. But he hasn’t done that in 2024. He is focused on the “big lie” — an issue that’s less potent than it appears — and allowed Trumpian alternatives such as DeSantis to gain ground. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post

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Why Abortion Is Becoming A Winning Issue For Democrats

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On Tuesday, we got our first test of how potent an issue abortion might be for Democrats this fall. In a state that overwhelmingly voted for then-President Donald Trump in 2020, a ballot initiative clarifying that Kansas’s state constitution does in fact protect abortion won by double digits.

What’s going on?

On the one hand, public opinion on whether abortions should generally be legal or illegal hasn’t changed much since the Supreme Court decided in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to end the constitutional right to abortion earlier this summer. In fact, daily tracking polls from Civiqs show that the share of registered voters who think abortion should be legal has held steady at 57-58 percent throughout the past year — even though there have been mounting restrictions on reproductive rights.

But the relative stability of the topline numbers masks significant changes in the scenarios under which Democrats, independents and Republicans now think that abortion should be permitted or banned — shifts that speak in part to why abortion is becoming such a powerful wedge issue for the Democratic Party. CONTINUED

Michael Tesler (UC Irvine), FiveThirtyEight

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Democrats Might Avoid a Midterm Wipeout

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If Democrats avoid the worst outcome in November’s midterm elections, the principal reason will likely be the GOP’s failure to reverse its decline in white-collar suburbs during the Donald Trump era.

That’s a clear message from yesterday’s crowded primary calendar, which showed the GOP mostly continuing to nominate Trump-style culture-war candidates around the country. And yet, the resounding defeat of an anti-abortion ballot initiative in Kansas showed how many voters in larger population centers are recoiling from that Trumpist vision. …

Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican consultant, told me that the magnitude of the pro-abortion-rights vote in Kansas was “unexpected,” but it does not guarantee Democratic candidates’ suburban domination in November. “This was a rare up or down vote on this issue,” he told me in an email. “November will be different, as voters will have lots of reasons to vote and lots of issues to consider … Polls consistently show the economy trumping this issue in the minds of the voters.”

But Democrats believe that the contrast on abortion will be highly consequential, especially in governor’s races, where Democrats such as the incumbent Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and the nominee Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania are presenting themselves as a last line of defense against Republicans intent on banning the procedure. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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