Can Democrats break the GOP stranglehold on the states?

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Over the past two years, Republicans have used their dominant hold on most state legislatures to advance a polarizing agenda moving social policy sharply to the right on issues from abortion and voting to book bans and classroom teaching of race and gender.

Now, a new analysis has found that over the next decade, Democrats will face an uphill challenge to dislodge the GOP state house advantage that has allowed conservatives to advance this agenda so broadly and so quickly. In the battle for control of state legislatures, “Democrats face a defensive outlook over the decade ahead,” the Democratic group Forward Majority concludes in a report released Monday. “Good years for Democrats are ones in which power will come down to razor-thin margins; in contrast, good years for Republicans will be total routs.” CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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Biden Approval Rating Gets Big Bounce From Young Americans

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating bounced higher over the past month, helped by lower gas prices and a series of legislative wins, a new IBD/TIPP Poll finds. Younger Americans, in particular, rallied around Biden following approval of the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act and his decision to forgive up to $20,000 in college loans. …

Including the full survey group, 46% of American adults approve how Biden is handling the presidency, and 48% disapprove. That net -2 approval rating improved from August’s -14, with 39% approval and 53% disapproval. It also marks an improvement from July’s -9, with 40% approval and 49% disapproval, as well as June’s -12 with 37% approval and 49% disapproval. CONTINUED

Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily

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Inflation and Home Price Expectations Decline Further

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas also continued to decline, with households now expecting gas prices to be roughly unchanged a year from now. Home price growth expectations fell sharply, and expectations of future credit access deteriorated. Consumers were more optimistic about their future household income and financial situations. CONTINUED

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again

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… That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

Wisconsin is a good example. On paper, the Republican senator Ron Johnson ought to be favored to win re-election. The FiveThirtyEight fundamentals index, for instance, makes him a two-point favorite. Instead, the polls have exceeded the wildest expectations of Democrats. …

The Wisconsin data is just one example of a broader pattern across the battlegrounds: The more the polls overestimated Mr. Biden last time, the better Democrats seem to be doing relative to expectations. And conversely, Democrats are posting less impressive numbers in some of the states where the polls were fairly accurate two years ago, like Georgia. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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Support for Greater Government Role in Health Care for Older Adults

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About half of adults in America think Medicare and Medicaid should play large roles in paying for ongoing living assistance for older adults, along with private insurers. And majorities of Democrats and Republicans favor policies to help Americans prepare for the costs of providing and receiving long-term care, according to a study from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

There is bipartisan support for a host of policies to help pay for the costs of long-term care and caregiving, many of which would involve an expanded role for the federal government. Seventy-five percent of U.S. adults overall favor long-term care coverage through Medicare Advantage or supplemental insurance, and about two-thirds support a government-administered long-term care insurance program, government funding for low-income people to receive long-term care in their homes, or Social Security earnings credit for providing care to a loved one.

Tax breaks for purchasing long-term care insurance and for providing care to a family member also enjoy support from about two-thirds of the public. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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How the political tide has turned against vaping

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… A few weeks ago, I noted the proliferation of smoke shops in my native New York. Part of that has to do with marijuana (more on that in a minute), but it also has to do with vaping. But while vaping is far more popular among young Americans than it was a decade ago, the numerous anti-vaping campaigns by public health officials may be working. The fact is that while getting behind marijuana legalization may be a winning political issue, the opposite may be true for vaping. …

When asked by Gallup whether laws against vaping should be made more strict, made less strict or kept the same, 61% of Americans said more strict. This position was supported by a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents. It was also backed by a majority of every age group broken down by Gallup (18-34, 35-54 and 55+). CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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