Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest

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The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking.

While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.

Voters are engaged because they think the stakes are so high — for many, bigger than just affecting their pocketbooks. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Voters divided amid intense fight for control of Congress, poll finds

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Heading into the final weeks of the midterm election campaign, Americans are split nationally in their vote for Congress, with Republicans holding sizable advantages on the economy, inflation and crime and Democrats far more trusted to handle the issues of abortion and climate change, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. …

The poll also surveyed Americans on their attitudes toward the ongoing investigations of former president Donald Trump by the Justice Department. A slim 52 percent majority says the former president should be charged with crimes for his handling of classified documents, his fundraising or for his actions related to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

President Biden continues to be a drag on Democratic candidates this fall. The Post-ABC survey pegs his approval rating at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving, including 41 percent strongly disapproving. CONTINUED

Dan Balz, Emily Guskin & Scott Clement, Washington Post

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Biden struggles, as does his party, as most Democrats look elsewhere for 2024

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With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic stewardship under fire and his overall job approval under 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as its nominee for president in 2024.

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.

Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else. CONTINUED

Gary Langer, ABC News

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The trust gap: how and why news on digital platforms is viewed more sceptically versus news in general

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What role, if any, do social media, search engines, and messaging apps play in eroding the public’s confidence in the news media? …

Drawing on an original dataset of survey responses collected in the summer of 2022 across four countries – Brazil, India, the UK, and the US – we examine the relationship between trust in news and how people think about news on digital platforms, especially Facebook, Google, WhatsApp, and YouTube, some of the most widely used platforms around the world. What we find is somewhat nuanced; how people think about information on platforms varies considerably. It depends on the platform, it depends on the country, it depends on the audiences within those countries, and it depends on the kinds of news those audiences are encountering in these varying spaces. CONTINUED

Camila Mont’Alverne, Amy Ross Arguedas, Benjamin Toff, Richard Fletcher & Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism

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Lost Hope of Lasting Democratic Majority

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Today we wish a belated and maybe not-so-Happy 20th Birthday to “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” the book that famously argued Democrats would gain an enduring advantage in a multiracial, postindustrial America.

There are countless explanations for the rise of Donald Trump and the growing dysfunction of American political life. This book does not necessarily rank at the top of that list. But when historians look back on this era, the book’s effect on American politics might be worth a mention.

The thesis that Democrats were on the cusp of a lasting advantage in national politics helped shape the hopes, fears and, ultimately, the conduct of the two major parties — especially once the Obama presidency appeared to confirm the book’s prophecy. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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Inside the Completely Legal G.O.P. Plot to Destroy American Democracy

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Imagine a legal Jan. 6. It’s bureaucratic, boring, invisible — and it might actually succeed.

Johnny Harris & Michelle Cottle, New York Times

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