The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans

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What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court.

GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention to this remarkable structural change. In the typical year, Ayres noted, the policies most relevant to the choice before voters are the work of the White House and Capitol Hill. “But in this case, the most significant policy action taken before the midterms,” he said, referring to the court’s decision overturning the abortion rights protections of Roe v. Wade, “was taken by a conservative-dominated, Republican-appointed Supreme Court.”

How this election turns out will depend in large part on which of the two incumbents draws the most voter anger. As a result, the beginning of the court’s new term on Monday has more electoral significance than usual. CONTINUED

E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post

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As the Latino vote’s power grows, urban and rural vote splits

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In the last few elections cycles, Latino voters have become a focus among analysts and campaigns, a fast-growing bloc seen as a key to understanding where the nation’s electorate may be headed. And a new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows how that voter segment looks different from the electorate overall — and how it may be starting to follow some of the larger trends in the broader American vote.

The size and power of the Latino vote has grown sharply over the last decade. In 2000, Latino voters made up about 7% of all the votes cast in the presidential race, according to exit polls, but by 2020, their share of the votes cast had nearly doubled to 13%. That percentage was enough to tie it with the African-American vote in that election.

And comparing this NBC News/Telemundo poll to the most recent NBC News survey shows how different the Latino vote looks in some crucial ways. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Democracy Moneyball, 2022 Edition

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… Politics is a game of active participation. If you feel passionate about a candidate, a party, or an issue, you can do the equivalent of run onto the playing field! You can go door-to-door or donate money, you can work for a campaign, and you can even run for office yourself. And in the long term, you can work to change the rules of the game.

But between now and November, where should you put your efforts? Elections everywhere are essential, of course. But some elections are more pivotal than others.

For example, control of the United States Senate this year hinges on eight races where the outcome is in the most doubt: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Utah, Florida, and Wisconsin. Elections there are pivotal, and one would be well advised to focus efforts there if one wants to influence who controls the Senate in 2023. CONTINUED

Sam Wang, Sam’s Newsletter

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Democrats are lagging among Black voters, and that could cost them in November

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… Black voters tend to be a forgotten part of the discussion about general elections. The reason is simple: They have been one of the most Democratic parts of the electorate for a long time. While Joe Biden in 2020 likely did slightly worse than Hillary Clinton among African Americans, he still won them by an overwhelming margin.

That doesn’t mean Black voters are unimportant, though. Black voters put Biden over the top in a number of swing states – e.g., Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All of those states have competitive gubernatorial and/or Senate races this year.

Looking at the national polling, it seems possible that Democrats might not be able to count on nearly as much support from Black voters as they have in previous elections. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll shows

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Less than six weeks before November’s midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by more than 20 points among Latino voters, but that Democratic advantage has declined from previous election cycles, according to a new national NBC News/Telemundo poll of the Latino electorate.

The poll also finds Latino voters are essentially divided on President Joe Biden, with 51% approving of his job performance and 45% disapproving. And it shows these voters largely siding with Democrats on issues like abortion, health care and addressing concerns of the Hispanic community. But it also has them backing Republicans on crime and the economy. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Americans worried midterms could bring divided government, gridlock

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With less than six weeks until the 2022 midterm elections, a new Axios/Ipsos poll finds that a slim majority of Americans are worried about divided government and split control of Congress after November. Just under half are concerned about Democrats keeping control of Congress or Republicans winning control of both chambers. Regardless of the outcome, there is one clear concern among those worried the Democrats will maintain both the Senate and House of Representatives: the economy will get worse. On the other side, those worried that Republicans will win control of both chambers of Congress cite a number of possible concerns, rather than just one issue, including: a worsening economy, gridlock, and that Republicans will shift too much of the focus to divisive social issues. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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