Democrats want you thinking about abortion in the voting booth

· Leave a Comment

Democrats are redoubling their efforts to keep abortion as a top issue in the midterms, as Republicans see signs voters may be shifting to concerns about the economy and crime in the home stretch. …

Polls have consistently shown Democrats with an advantage over Republicans on abortion. But there have been some signs the issue is becoming less salient in the midterms, especially as voters continue to express concerns about inflation and the overall economic outlook.

Results from a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this week showed 5% of likely voters nationally ranking abortion as the most important problem facing the country today, whereas 26% named the economy and 18% named inflation or the cost of living. The same survey showed Republicans making double-digit gains among independent female voters. CONTINUED

Morgan Chalfant, Semafor

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Mess in Los Angeles Points to Trouble for Democrats

· Leave a Comment

… Political tensions between African American, Hispanic American, Asian American and white communities in Los Angeles are now on full display as a result of the publication of a secretly taped conversation that exposed the crude, racist scheming of three Hispanic City Council officials and a Hispanic labor leader — who were, in the main, angling to enhance their power at the expense of Black competitors. These zero-sum conflicts epitomize the problem for liberals struggling to sustain a viable political alliance encompassing core minority constituencies. …

A series of Public Opinion surveys of Los Angeles residents conducted by Loyola Marymount University in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2022 suggested a recent deterioration in race relations in the city. The Loyola study found a sharp drop in optimism concerning race relations in 2022. For example, from 2017 to 2022, the percentage of Los Angeles residents saying race relations had improved fell from 40.6 to 19.3 percent. The percentage saying relations had worsened grew from 18.0 to 38.5 percent. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Trump Should Testify to Jan. 6 Committee

· Leave a Comment

Opinion on Donald Trump’s involvement in the January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol has not moved after what was billed as the final public hearing of the House committee investigating the incident. However, most Americans feel the former president should have to appear before the committee and that any such testimony should happen in public. …

Six in 10 Americans (60%) say Trump should have to testify before the House Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack. This includes 89% of Democrats and 61% of independents. …

Americans are divided on the impact of Trump’s continued presence in the country’s political life – 47% say this poses an actual danger to American democracy while 50% disagree. Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats (85%) say Trump poses a danger and about the same number of Republicans (86%) say he does not. Independents tilt toward saying Trump’s political activity does not pose a danger (55%) rather than does (42%). CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Gun Owners Support Specific Policies That Could Dramatically Reduce Gun Deaths

· Leave a Comment

97Percent, a bipartisan gun safety organization, today released new academic research that found the overwhelming majority of gun owners are very concerned about the high level of gun violence in this country (66%) and more than 70% of them want to help reduce gun injuries and deaths, but their support for key laws is dependent on the specific policy provisions.

The research, led by Tufts University’s Dr. Michael Siegel, is the first-of-its-kind to go beyond just measuring topline support of major laws to instead examine gun owners’ views of specific policy details. “Finding the Common Ground in Gun Safety: Part 1” reveals the detailed provisions which substantially increase gun owners’ support for several key policies. CONTINUED

97Percent

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Upset Alert: Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans.
• That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs.
• We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s issue, ranging from Senate races in Iowa and Washington to gubernatorial races in New York and Oklahoma.
• Most sleeper races will not feature an upset come Election Day, but some may under the right set of circumstances.
• We are making several rating changes to our Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Jan. 6 committee isn’t moving voters because the ‘Big Lie’ already did

· Leave a Comment

The literal battle lines were drawn on Jan. 6, 2021, as police faced off against pro-Trump rioters at the Capitol. In the days to follow, the political battle lines formed over the importance of that day, and who was to blame. Public opinion has not shifted much since then, even as the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol held eight public hearings over the summer, with a final epilogue of a session last week, shedding more light on what happened that day and former President Trump’s role in the events.

This is Schrodinger’s Midterm Issue: The hearings and the committee work have had no discernible impact on the midterms and have not even earned much attention outside the Beltway, yet the specter of Jan. 6 and the Big Lie hovers over nearly every midterm race. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack