Trump Was a Gift That Might Not Keep Giving

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… For two successive presidential elections, Trump has stymied the most ambitious members of his party, and now this group is becoming increasingly assertive. DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley, Mike Pompeo, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Mike Pence are engaged in the process of challenging the current occupant of the throne — making national appearances, courting donors, wooing party loyalists and generating media coverage, all with an eye on drawing blood. The question is, how vulnerable is Trump?

Earlier this month, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer reported in The Washington Post, “In private conversations among donors, operatives and other 2024 presidential hopefuls, a growing number of Republicans are trying to seize what they believe may be their best opportunity to sideline Trump and usher in a new generation of party leaders.” CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Trump’s Problems, Pelosi’s Decision And A 2022 Wrap

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The votes were still being counted but the news was being made elsewhere. Donald Trump announced his candidacy but then was hit with two bombshells: The Justice Department named a special counsel to investigate the national security documents he took to Mar-a-Lago and his role in the January 6th insurrection, AND the Supreme Court said his tax returns can be released to the Democratic-controlled (until Jan. 3rd) House. Nancy Pelosi said she’ll remain the House but will not stand for another term as Democratic leader. So much to talk about, and we have an all-star cast: Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), former Minnesota Congressman Vin Weber (R), Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, Republican strategist Mike Murphy.

Ken Rudin’s Political Junkie

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The U.S. Should Continue Supporting Ukraine—Americans Want To

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The Ukrainian liberation of western Kherson Oblast on November 11 was a major victory. It has not ended the terrible pressure under which Ukrainians find themselves, however. …

Americans, fortunately, seem to agree that the US should continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially despite hinted Russian nuclear threats. A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted on October 4-5 found that a majority of Americans feared that the U.S. is headed toward nuclear war with Russia but that 73% thought the U.S. should continue supporting Ukraine despite Russia’s threats. Support for financial assistance to Ukraine was also high at 59% despite the growing skepticism toward such aid expressed by some Republican members of Congress. CONTINUED

Frederick W. Kagan (American Enterprise Institute) & Mark Polyak (Ipsos), Time

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Polls vs. pundits: Who performed worse in 2022?

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Everyone seems to have internalized the habit of yelling about polls after elections, so it’s understandable if you didn’t notice that the good ones gave us a pretty good picture of what would happen in the 2022 midterm elections. As a pollster myself, I was frustrated by the narrative that emerged after the election that polls didn’t do well. Problem is, the polls didn’t all do well. …

What’s happened is that most pundits have lost the long-term view of the polling industry and are instead chasing after the shiny new thing, forgetting to assess polls on their merits rather than on the last two cycles. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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One in Four Workers Still Fear Catching COVID-19 at Work

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U.S. workers’ fear of contracting COVID-19 on the job has waned over the course of the pandemic, but a certain amount of unease persists. About one in four employed adults still say they are “very” (6%) or “moderately” (20%) concerned about being exposed to the coronavirus at work, while a third are “not too concerned” and 41% are “not concerned at all.” CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Americans overwhelmingly say marijuana should be legal for medical or recreational use

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With a growing number of states authorizing the use of marijuana, the public continues to broadly favor legalization of the drug for medical and recreational purposes.

An overwhelming share of U.S. adults (88%) say either that marijuana should be legal for medical and recreational use by adults (59%) or that it should be legal for medical use only (30%). Just one-in-ten (10%) say marijuana use should not be legal, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Oct. 10-16, 2022. CONTINUED

Ted Van Green, Pew Research Center

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