2022’s Split Ticket States

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Key Points
• Among states that are finished voting this year, 5 chose candidates of different parties between their Senate and gubernatorial elections. This number is roughly in line with recent midterms.
• Georgia is headed to a runoff, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Brian Kemp (R-GA) placed first in their respective races this month.
• Arizona came close to splitting its ticket, but ultimately voted for 2 Democrats. There were a few other states where there was a significant delta between the Senate and gubernatorial races. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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The New Crossover Members of the House

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Key Points
• Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump.
• There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 Democrats in Trump seats.
• Democrats used to win more crossover districts, but Republicans have now won more in 6 of the last 7 elections as the overall number of crossover districts has generally declined.
• It is common for the opposition party in Congress to add to their roster of crossover districts in a midterm, and that’s exactly what happened in 2022, despite Republicans having a disappointing election overall. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crossover House districts, 2000-2022

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Voters Have Deep Concerns Over Threat to Democracy, but for Very Different Reasons

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Just weeks after the fall’s midterm elections, voters feel strongly that the country’s democracy is being threatened. While a lack of respect and civility in politics continues to remain an issue for voters, there’s not a lot of agreement on why Americans feel this way.

According to the latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service (GU Politics) Battleground Civility Poll, an overwhelming 75% of Americans believe that “democracy is under attack,” as opposed to only 24% who disagree. This belief cuts across party lines with 80% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 64% of Independents sharing this concern.

When given a list of reasons why some people say democracy is under attack, voters agree widely on the threat of violence to democracy: 77% of voters agree that “the increasing amount of violent behavior in our society” is an extremely or very serious threat to democracy (including 75% of Republicans and 74% of Democrats). Furthermore, 63% of voters believe that “the decreasing amount of respect and civility in our political system” is an extremely or very serious threat to democracy (including 61% of Republicans and 68% of Democrats). CONTINUED

Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service

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Small rebound in approval of U.S. Supreme Court, continued opposition to use of race as a factor in college admissions

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 60% disapproved. Approval declined sharply between July and September 2021, then fell further in May 2022 following the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade, which had permitted abortion nationwide. …

Approval of the Court is quite high among Republicans, among whom 70% approve and 30% disapprove. Among independents, however, 40% approve and 60% disapprove. Among Democrats, 28% approve and 72% disapprove.

The latest Marquette Law School Supreme Court Survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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The Dust Has Settled (with Ron Brownstein)

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This week Robert Gibbs and Mike Murphy were joined by a man whose many titles will take up most of our episode description. He is a Senior Editor at The Atlantic, a Senior Political Analyst for CNN, and the author of “Rock Me on the Water: 1974 — The Year Los Angeles Transformed Movies, Music, Television, and Politics”. Now that the dust has settled they look back on the midterms and discuss the upcoming races, if there are still swing states, and the future of both parties. Plus Ron shares his favorite book!

Hacks on Tap

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Where History Rhymed and Where It Didn’t

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Earlier this cycle I compared midterm elections to Mark Twain’s famous quip about history not repeating, but often rhyming. Each midterm election is unique, but there are also patterns and norms that are constants from one midterm to the next.

With the dust now (almost) settled, Twain’s quote was a pretty accurate summation of the 2022 midterm elections.

There was much about this midterm that rhymed with established patterns, but also ways in which it broke new ground. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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