A Strategy for Factory Towns

· Leave a Comment

… This report is part of a continuing effort by American Family Voices to do on-the-ground research and data analysis to understand the thinking and motivation of working-class voters, and to recommend strategies that can begin to rebuild the Democratic Party’s and progressive movement’s historic connection to America’s working class.

The project focuses on voters in “Factory Town” counties in six key states: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states were Ground Zero in 2016, breaking down the “Blue Wall” critical to Democratic victories. Joe Biden did just enough better in 2020 to help win back Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but these communities in all six states remain very tough for Democrats and will be among the most highly competitive counties for 2024.

Despite the challenges, this is a moment where Democrats have an opportunity to make more gains. Biden and the Democratic Congress have passed substantial legislation that can bring progressive change, all the way down to the community level, over the next two years. The president’s policies, background, and genuine affinity for these working-class communities make him an ideal leader for this effort. CONTINUED

Mike Lux, American Family Voices

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

For 2024 GOP field, it’s time for Reagan’s ‘Eleventh Commandment’

· Leave a Comment

It seems like a lifetime ago when remembering Ronald Reagan’s embrace in the 1960s of what came to be known as the “Eleventh Commandment.” Meant to limit intraparty fire, the maxim went like this: “Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.” …

Today, Reagan’s commandment seems much like a sentimental family antique, rarely used but occasionally dusted off and displayed briefly for public consumption — then promptly returned to the attic and forgotten. That’s where we find ourselves today as the 2024 presidential primary season is officially underway and, already, the “Eleventh Commandment” has been kicked to the side of the road, left for dead before the campaign has really come to life.

Over the past couple of weeks, declared and potential candidates seem to be walking down the same path that led Republicans to nasty primaries in 2012 and 2016, costing them the election in the former and the popular vote in the latter. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Notes on the State of Politics: Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; U.S. House back to full strength, but not for long

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her nearly 50-point win represented a notable overperformance.
• The most important judicial race of this year will be in the closely-divided state of Wisconsin, where control of the state Supreme Court is on the line.
• In last night’s judicial primary, Democratic-aligned candidates took 54% of the two-way vote in Wisconsin. This could bode well for liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz, who will face conservative Daniel Kelly in April, although there have been surprises in past state Supreme Court elections. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Forces Tearing Us Apart Are Not Quite What They Seem

· Leave a Comment

A toxic combination of racial resentment and the sharp regional disparity in economic growth between urban and rural America is driving the class upheaval in American partisanship, with the Republican Party dominant in working-class House districts and the Democratic Party winning a decisive majority of upscale House seats.

Studies from across the left-right spectrum reveal these and other patterns: a nation politically divided by levels of diversity; the emergence of an ideologically consistent liberal Democratic Party matching the consistent conservatism of the Republican Party, for the first time in recent history; and a striking discrepancy in the median household income of white-majority House districts held by Democrats and Republicans. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden’s standing improves, while Trump slumps with Republican voters

· Leave a Comment

President Biden is seeing his highest approval ratings in almost a year, while former President Donald Trump, who is hoping to take the job back, is getting his worst scores among potential Republican voters in years, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

The survey — conducted last week, after the president’s State of the Union address — of more than 1,300 adults and about 1,200 registered voters comes as the 2024 Republican presidential primary is heating up. And there are clear pictures emerging of who potential Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis voters are, as a majority of potential Republican voters continue to say they would be better off with someone other than Trump at the top of the ticket. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden and Trump face headwinds going into 2024, poll shows

· Leave a Comment

The 2024 presidential election campaign season remains several months away, and while much can change, the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll shows both Democrats and Republicans are already sizing up potential candidates.

Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have maintained large shares of support among their respective bases. But there is still room for competition to erode the shaky certainty of their 2024 presidential bids, and “we should be very wary of just assuming we know how things are going to play out,” said Amy Walter, editor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “The degree that both candidates are viewed skeptically by the party’s base is quite remarkable,” she said. …

Days after his State of the Union address, Biden enjoyed a post-speech boost in public opinion. The boost brought Americans to an even split in their approval of the president, with 46 percent saying they support what he’s done so far in office and another 46 percent saying they are not pleased with Biden. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack