Democrats’ Sympathies in Middle East Shift to Palestinians

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After a decade in which Democrats have shown increasing affinity toward the Palestinians, their sympathies in the Middle East now lie more with the Palestinians than the Israelis, 49% versus 38%.

Today’s attitudes reflect an 11-percentage-point increase over the past year in Democrats’ sympathy with the Palestinians. At the same time, the percentages sympathizing more with the Israelis (38%) and those not favoring a side (13%) have dipped to new lows. …

As a result of this year’s partisan shifts, sympathy toward the Palestinians among U.S. adults is at a new high of 31%, while the proportion not favoring a side is at a new low of 15%. The 54% of Americans sympathizing more with the Israelis is similar to last year’s 55% but is the lowest since 2005. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Why ‘MAGA’ is so appealing to older Republicans

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… In the 2016 election, Trump leveraged concerns among older Republicans about the changing demography of the United States to his benefit. His slogan — make America great again — was not specifically about race, but it incorporated a sense that America had declined as it also was less disproportionately focused on the needs of White Americans.

New polling from CNN, conducted by SSRS, shows how this sense of decline continues to hold sway in the GOP — and continues to inform how Republican candidates and right-wing media appeal to Republican voters. The poll is centered on gauging views of Republican primary voters (including independents) a year out from the 2024 nominating contest. But the pollsters included a number of questions centered on this idea of how America’s changing. For example, most respondents said that America’s best days were behind us; that, you might say, America is no longer as great as it used to be. …

The most interesting question in the CNN poll, though, focused on views of American diversity. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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CNN Poll: Most Republicans care more about picking a 2024 GOP nominee who agrees with them on issues than one who can beat Biden

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Republicans hold a dour outlook on the country and prioritize finding a 2024 nominee who shares their views on major issues over one with a strong chance to defeat President Joe Biden, according to a new CNN poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents conducted by SSRS. The survey suggests sharp divisions within the potential GOP electorate by age, education, ideology and geography, as well as between Donald Trump backers locked into their choice and a more movable group in search of an alternative. …

When the potential electorate – broadly defined as those who say they might participate in the 2024 GOP nomination process – are asked to choose who they would most likely support from a list of nine potential candidates, two familiar names rise to the top: 40% say they would most likely back Trump and 36% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No other candidate reaches double digits, with former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at 6% each. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta & Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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How crime is igniting new conflicts between red states and blue cities

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Republican-controlled state governments are opening an explosive new front in their decadelong drive to exert more control over the decisions — and decision makers — in Democratic-run cities and counties.

From Florida and Mississippi to Georgia, Texas and Missouri, an array of red states are taking aggressive new steps to seize authority over local prosecutors, city policing policies, or both. …

The growing efforts by red states to seize authority over law enforcement in blue cities is drawing energy from the convergence of two powerful trends.

One is the increased tendency of red states to override the decisions of those blue metros on a wide array of issues — on everything from minimum wage and family leave laws to environmental regulations, mask requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic, and even recycling policies for plastic bags. The other is the intensifying political struggle over crime that has produced an intense pushback against the demands for criminal justice reform that emerged in the nationwide protests following the murder of George Floyd in 2020. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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Why Fox’s Call on Arizona, Which Was Right, Was Still Wrong

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… Was the Fox call the result of the most sophisticated and accurate modeling, or more like being “right” when calling heads in a coin flip? It appears to be the latter — a lucky and dangerous guess — based on a review of televised statements by the Fox News decision team and publicly available data about the network’s modeling.

The Fox team believed Biden would win Arizona by a comfortable margin at the time the call was made, based on erroneous assumptions and flawed polling. While it worked out for Fox in the end, similarly risky decisions could have easily led to a missed call, with potentially dire consequences for trust in American elections. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times [via Yahoo News]

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Americans’ Favorable Rating of Russia Sinks to New Low of 9%

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Americans’ already-negative opinions of Russia have soured further in the past year, dropping from 15% holding a favorable view to 9%. The current reading for Russia is the lowest Gallup has measured since it first asked about the “Soviet Union” in this format in 1989. …

In contrast to their negative opinions of Russia, Americans are mostly positive toward Ukraine. Sixty-eight percent have a favorable opinion of Ukraine, up six percentage points from a year ago and 11 points higher than in 2020. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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