After Musk’s takeover, big shifts in how Republican and Democratic Twitter users view the platform

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Two years ago, a majority of Republican Twitter users in the United States said the site had a bad impact on American democracy. But today, following Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, their views have become much more positive, while those of their Democratic counterparts have grown more negative. …

In addition to asking Twitter users about the site’s impact on democracy, the Center’s new survey measures their views about potential issues that may occur on the platform. It finds that Democratic and Republican users are growing further apart in their worries about misinformation, harassment and civility. CONTINUED

Monica Anderson, Pew Research Center

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Don’t Panic About Biden’s Approval Ratings

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In the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he will seek re-election, there have been many stories assessing his chances of winning. Most if not all of these stories point to Biden’s low approval ratings as a danger sign, as they are well below the ratings of presidents in previous decades, and of nearly all presidents since the beginning of approval polling in the late 1930’s.

In this post, I will explain why approval ratings are an illusory measure of a modern president’s electoral chances. While voters may be responding to the same approval questions today that they have for the last 90 years, presidential approval simply doesn’t have the same electoral significance today that it has in decades past. A president in the 20th century was very likely to enjoy broad majority support for all or nearly all of their term in office. But, as you will see, low and stable approval ratings have become the defining features of presidential politics since W. Bush’s 9/11 bump faded in 2003. CONTINUED

Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading

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How to read a poll

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As readers of this blog know, I am not wild about public polls – they tend to focus people on the “horse race” at the expense of other areas of the campaign and way too often their read of the horse race or of changes in it are misleading. Nonetheless, they seem to proliferate so here is a short primer of what to look for to evaluate how real they are – or are not:

1. Do the demographics of the poll match those of the electorate? The distribution in the poll by age, gender, partisanship, race, education and geography should match that of the electorate. Now, these factors vary in the electorate depending on voter registration and turnout so the exact distribution for a future election is unknowable. Additionally, while we all have access to U.S. Census data, most of us do not have access to special modeled voter files that tell us this information for earlier elections. So some “guesstimating” is necessary for casual consumers of polls. CONTINUED

Diane Feldman, View from the Pearl

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Why are Americans shooting strangers and neighbors? ‘It all goes back to fear’

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… Why are people so quick to pull the trigger on strangers? …

Experts blame a cocktail of factors: The easy availability of guns, misconceptions around stand-your-ground laws, the marketing of firearms for self-defense — and a growing sense among Americans, particularly Republicans, that safety in their backyard is deteriorating.

Since 2020, the share of Republicans who said that crime is rising in their community has jumped from 38 percent to 73 percent, according to the latest Gallup numbers from last fall. Among Democrats, that same concern climbed only 5 percentage points to 42 percent, marking the widest partisan perception gap since the polling firm first asked the question a half-century ago.

Reality is more complicated. A Washington Post crime analysis of 80 major police departments’ records found that reported violence across the country in 2022 was lower than the five-year average. CONTINUED

Danielle Paquette, John D. Harden & Scott Clement, Washington Post

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How bad is it for Ron DeSantis? He’s polling at RFK Jr.’s level

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent the past few months running to the right ahead of his expected entry into the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign. From signing into law a six-week abortion ban to fighting with Disney, the governor has focused on satisfying his party’s conservative base.

So far at least, those efforts have not paid off in Republican primary polling, with DeSantis falling further behind the current front-runner, former President Donald Trump.

Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Most Americans want societal change but are divided on specifics, poll shows

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For the past few years, the culture wars have been a dominant force in American politics. The debate over what kind of country the United States should become and how fast it should change have been themes at the national and state level.

Now, a new poll from NBC News suggests the nation might be more accepting of a need for societal change than some have theorized, at least in some areas. The numbers indicate Democrats might have an advantage on some big cultural issues with the national electorate.

One of the broad debates in politics over the past few election cycles has been over the need (or lack of need) for greater “social justice” in the United States. Democrats have largely trumpeted the concept, while Republicans have largely criticized it as a trojan horse for more liberal policies.

The new poll shows large support for the idea of social justice. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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