How Ohio’s ballot vote could preview the 2024 politics of abortion

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The ballot initiative Ohio voters will decide Tuesday is likely to demonstrate again the continuing public resistance to last year’s Supreme Court decision ending the nationwide constitutional right to abortion – while also offering an early indication about how broadly that backlash may benefit Democrats in the 2024 election. …

If Ohio voters on Tuesday reject the measure, known as Issue 1, to require super-majorities for future initiatives, it would underscore the broad public support for maintaining legal access to abortion, even in most states that now lean strongly toward Republicans. A massive 2022 polling project by the non-partisan Public Religion Research Institute found that a majority of voters in 43 states said they believe abortion should remain legal in all or most circumstances. …

But while an Ohio victory may generate momentum for abortion rights advocates, it could also demonstrate the big political challenge still confronting them. While the abortion rights’ side has consistently won ballot initiatives, the issue’s impact on electoral campaigns has been much more uneven. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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Most disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate change, Post-UMD poll finds

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Nearly one year after President Biden enacted a sprawling package to combat harmful emissions and boost clean energy, his administration is struggling to demonstrate the law’s value to weary voters — and stave off a widening array of new political threats. Most Americans — 57 percent — disapprove of Biden’s handling of climate change, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, which also finds that few adults say they know a good amount or great deal about the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that includes massive new investments in response to global warming.

The low approval and lack of public awareness underscore Biden’s top challenge entering the 2024 presidential race, as he tries to sell an unknowing electorate on an agenda that — in the eyes of the White House — has created jobs, boosted manufacturing and lowered costs for families. CONTINUED

Tony Romm, Scott Clement, Emily Guskin & Kate Selig, Washington Post

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Comparing “Morning in America” with 2023

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… Survey after survey shows that Americans see the current economy in a very negative light. I wrote a post a week ago trying to think about why Americans might be so upset about the economy, when indicators like unemployment, wages, and inflation have all turned up in the last year or so. Other people have written very thoughtfully on the same topic. But today I want to do something slightly different — I want to compare the Biden economy of 2023 to the Reagan economy of 1984.

Naturally, a President running for reelection will choose to highlight economic indicators that are most favorable to his own record. So judging Biden’s economy by the things that Reagan’s campaign thought he was getting right is actually a pretty tough standard. Nevertheless, 2023 actually comes out ahead on most counts.

Reagan’s ad trumpets five things: 1. High employment rates. 2. Lower interest rates. 3. Lower inflation. 4. Lots of homebuying. 5. A large number of marriages.

So let’s do a little comparison. CONTINUED

Noah Smith, Noahpinion

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The fight over corporate politics is just beginning

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… For the most part, Americans seem less than excited that companies are wading into the political realm, according to data from CNBC’s recent All-America Economic Survey. About 6 in 10 Americans say they believe it is inappropriate for companies to take stands on political, social and cultural issues, according to the survey. A little less than a third of respondents say they believe those stands are appropriate.

But as is the case with a many other topics in United States, those views change sharply when you look at the responses through a partisan lens. Among Republicans there is a strong distaste for corporate issue stances: 71% say the practice is inappropriate, while just 17% say it is. Independent voters look like the overall figures, as is often the case, with 61% saying it is inappropriate and 33% saying it is. And Democrats are much more accepting of businesses taking issue stands. Only 43% of Democrats say that practice is inappropriate while slightly more, 47%, say it is appropriate. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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After latest Trump indictment, many Americans see implications for democracy. For some, it’s personal.

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America’s response to this week’s indictment of Donald Trump is providing a window into more than just how Americans view his alleged actions per se — but also into what they think it means for democracy itself.

Half the nation believes Trump tried to stay in office beyond his term through illegal and unconstitutional means. To most Americans, such an effort would mean undermining democracy. For them and for a majority of Americans overall, the series of indictments and ongoing investigations against Trump are seen as “defending democracy” and “upholding the rule of law.” …

For most Republicans, the series of indictments are also personal, seeing them as “an attack” on people like them — echoing some of Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail. And big majorities of Republicans think the indictments are an attempt to stop Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. CONTINUED

CBS News

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The big reason Trump leads the GOP field: Republicans think he won the 2020 election

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The 2024 presidential election is on the horizon, but we just can’t seem to leave 2020 behind. Former President Donald Trump was indicted and arraigned this week on charges related to efforts to overturn that electoral outcome. At the same time, primary polls indicate that Trump and President Joe Biden are by far the most likely to represent their parties once more in next year’s general election.

Perhaps, then, it makes sense that arguably the No. 1 predictor of vote choice for the Republican nomination is whether voters view the 2020 election as legitimate.

It turns out that Trump’s ability to convince a large swath of the Republican base that Biden’s win was illegitimate is paying major dividends as he seeks the GOP nomination for a third time. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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