GOP primary voters split on issues based on view of 2020 election result

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There are a lot of ways to understand the 2024 GOP primary electorate, but the most crucial split may be the one between Republican voters who believe Donald Trump actually won the 2020 presidential race and Republican voters who, correctly, acknowledge the former president lost his reelection bid.

A new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll finds likely caucusgoers in Iowa are fairly closely divided on the outcome of the 2020 race and there are sharp differences between the electorate that still believes Trump won and the electorate that accepts that Trump lost.

Despite the former president’s solid lead in most primary polls and his unwavering public stance that the election was “stolen” from him, only a slim majority of likely Iowa caucus voters believe Trump actually won the White House in 2020. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Why most of Trump’s Republican rivals won’t attack him

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Polls show Donald Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, by about 40 points. You might think this would cause the former president’s GOP rivals to attack him in an attempt to eat into that support, which stands at north of 50% of the primary vote. Yet, most of his opponents seem hesitant, if not totally unwilling, to do so.

A look at the numbers reveals why. Those who have gone after him have seen their popularity among Republican voters suffer, while those who have risen in primary polling are either mostly not mentioning Trump or are praising him.

You needn’t look further than former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to understand what happens when a Republican candidate is highly critical of the former president. Christie is setting records for intraparty unpopularity. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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For the GOP, it’s all over but the shouting … and there will be plenty of shouting

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Watching this fight for the Republican presidential nomination is like watching a race or a game that feels fixed from the beginning. For all intents and purposes, former President Trump is effectively an incumbent seeking renomination. It is not and has not been an “open” contest with several hopefuls having a legitimate chance to win. …

Some will have personal or professional agendas requiring them to pretend that this is still a real contest, and that the outcome is still in doubt, but that doesn’t change the reality that, barring Trump having some health-related problem before the convention, this nomination is settled. Indeed, the only thing that could prevent this being a rematch between President Biden and Trump would more likely be medical than political or legal.

Many outside the GOP find it almost incomprehensible that, despite his legal challenges and polarizing behavior, Trump is the dominant figure in his party. But those still skeptical of Trump’s strength need to look at the situation through the eyes of most Republicans:

1. Three-quarters of Republicans fundamentally like Donald Trump. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook, National Journal

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Post-GOP Debate Survey Shows Trump Didn’t Suffer for Skipping

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The first Republican presidential debate did nothing to change former President Donald Trump’s formidable lead over his rivals for the party’s 2024 nomination. According to a survey conducted Aug. 24, 58% of potential Republican primary voters back Trump for the GOP’s 2024 nomination. This is unchanged from our surveys released on Monday before Wednesday’s matchup. It shows that the Republican front-runner paid no price for skipping the debate even though most potential primary voters did want him to attend. CONTINUED

Eli Yokley, Morning Consult

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To reduce gun violence, the public supports several gun control measures

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Nearly-two thirds of the public remains in favor of stricter gun laws, a share that has remained fairly stable since 2016. About 90% of Democrats say that gun control laws in the U.S. should be stricter compared to just a third of Republicans.

Over three-quarters think that preventing mass shootings and reducing gun violence is important, including majorities from both parties. Most also believe restricting gun access would result in fewer mass shootings, murders, and violent crime. …

Majorities of Democrats and Republicans support background checks and red flag laws However, while 8 in 10 Democrats favor a nationwide ban on AR-15 rifles, nearly half of Republicans oppose such a law. And two-thirds of Republicans are in favor of allowing teachers and administrators to be armed in schools compared to just a fifth of Democrats. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley seen as top performers in first Republican debate

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A new FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos conducted immediately following the first Republican primary debate finds that Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nikki Haley are viewed by those who watched the debate as the best performers. Post-debate, this trio of candidates also has favorability ratings that compete with former president and current frontrunner Donald Trump, although only DeSantis has a similar percentage of debate watchers who are considering voting for him. Lastly, while all three candidates performed well in the eyes of those who watched the debate, two in three Republican primary voters did not watch any of the debate. CONTINUED

Ipsos

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