Key Points• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
Key Points• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.• The seats-in-trouble […] Read more »
How Michigan voters feel about abortion, overturning Roe, possible ballot proposal
A majority of Michigan voters “strongly disagree” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the 1973 landmark ruling in Roe v. Wade, and many say they would support an amendment to the state constitution to guarantee abortion access, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll. A new survey, conducted between […] Read more »
It’s impossible to trust polls — or ignore them. Here’s how to stay sane.
It feels impossible to trust polls — and equally impossible to ignore them. The polling industry faces well-known problems: Only 6 to 7 percent of people will pick up a phone call from a pollster; polls completely failed to find segments of Donald Trump’s base in 2020; and predicting exactly […] Read more »
Two-thirds of independents say they don’t want Trump to run for president
Former President Donald Trump continues to heavily suggest he will run for president in 2024, but a new poll out from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist shows voters in the middle overwhelmingly don’t want him to give it another go. Sixty-seven percent of independents said they do not want Trump to run again, […] Read more »
Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms
The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. … The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true […] Read more »