… At this point (Thursday afternoon), with 201 Republicans supporting McCarthy and 20 still opposed, 10 percent of the Republican conference members are dictating what the other 90 percent can and can’t do. … History shows us that political parties, wherever they are found, almost always have a few rebels […] Read more »
The Republicans’ Math Problem in Midterms and Potentially 2024
Politics isn’t all that complicated. It’s really just math. But, as those of us who were never big fans of the subject in school can attest, sometimes math can be hard. As I write this on Thursday, the most prominent political figure in America, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has a very […] Read more »
Biden’s Blue-Collar Bet
When President Joe Biden visited Kentucky yesterday to tout a new bridge project, most media attention focused on his embrace of bipartisanship. And indeed Biden, against the backdrop of the GOP chaos in the House of Representatives, signaled how aggressively he would claim that reach-across-the-aisle mantle. He appeared onstage with […] Read more »
The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors
Key Points• This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday.• The […] Read more »
A Thermostatic Model of Congressional Elections
Congressional elections often are considered a referendum on presidents. Popular presidential candidates produce coattails in presidential election years and can limit voters’ typical desires for partisan balancing in midterms. But the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats and vote share in midterms even with high popularity. We argue that […] Read more »
Which Senate candidates were strongest and weakest in 2022?
Measuring the strength and weakness of candidates is a time-honored tradition in political analysis. But too often it’s too subjective. An Inside Elections metric quantifies the electoral performance of candidates, making it easier to test conventional wisdom and prevailing political narratives. Did underwhelming nominees in key states torpedo GOP efforts […] Read more »