… In order to better understand how Democrats avoided big losses in the 2022 midterms, this analysis examines Democratic minus Republican (D-R) vote margins using 2022 exit polls data and those of earlier elections compiled by Edison Research. They show that among people voting for House of Representatives candidates, key demographic groups that traditionally favor Democrats (young people, women, racial minorities, and white female college graduates) played a significant role—but only some of these groups showed as strong or stronger a D-R margin than was the case in the 2020 presidential election or previous midterms. Especially notable among these groups were young adults. In contrast, groups long associated with former President Donald Trump’s base (such as older voters and white male non-college graduates) stayed with Republican candidates. …
In short, these midterms revealed Democrats’ strength among new generations of voters and demographic groups that will continue to grow in size, while Republicans continue to do well with older voters and white men without college educations. And while the latter voting bloc continues to decline in size, it is still substantial in many states. The question these results raise, then, is whether the blocs that strongly supported former President Trump in the past will retain enough clout to counter future gains among groups that favored Democrats this time around. CONTINUED
William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
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