The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself

In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. …

Weeks before the midterms, I had spoken with Trafalgar’s CEO, Robert Cahaly, who predicted Republican victory, and said he wanted to be the “Elon Musk of polling.” I spoke with him again this week about what went wrong with his polling and where he goes from here. CONTINUED

Benjamin Hart, New York Magazine


The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.