History said there should be a red wave.
After all, on average, in the 19 midterms between the end of World War II and this one, the White House party lost 27 House seats, and four in the Senate. And these were not average times. The president’s approval rating was one of the lowest on record and while the economy was strong on job creation, what tends to count most politically—changes in real disposable income—were problematic as inflation cancelled out income gains.
Models based on those fundamentals predicted a loss of 45 Democratic seats. …
Why did Democrats beat the odds?
There’s lots more data to crunch, but at least three factors appeared to play starring roles: abortion rights, Donald Trump and candidate quality. CONTINUED
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill
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