… Analysts and pundits will tell you Trump can’t keep his base. I’m not one of them. Trump was not joking when he said he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in New York City and maintain his popularity. If he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, well, he can probably also deal in anti-democratic election lies, miss on a few endorsements, and still maintain his base for the 2024 primary.
So unless there is dramatic movement in Trump’s legal cases that force an end to his candidacy or make him so obviously unfit that all of Republican leadership collectively turns against him, he is likely to be the 2024 nominee. And the general? What 2022 tells us is that 2024 is likely to depend on paper-thin margins in a few states again. CONTINUED
Natalie Jackson, National Journal
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