How Much Did a ‘Dobbs Effect’ Blunt the Red Wave?

The expectations for 2022 midterms were set early on. The Democratic Party was expected to easily lose control of the House and potentially the Senate as a result of lackluster approval ratings for Joe Biden and concerns about issues like crime and inflation.

But then came the end of Roe v. Wade. Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of TargetSmart, determined that the Supreme Court decision on abortion was having a significant effect on voters and that there was a potential Dobbs effect that could increase turnout and combat the predicted red wave. After Democrats pulled off unprecedented wins for a party in power, Bonier’s hypothesis seems to have been validated.

I recently spoke with Bonier about his initial impressions of the midterm results, what impact he believes the Dobbs decision had and whether the polling was better than it was in 2016. CONTINUED

Nia Prater, New York Magazine


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