Just about no part of the 2022 midterms is more uncertain than the race for control of the U.S. Senate. The chamber is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans,1 but Democrats hold a precarious majority via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, a one-seat gain by Republicans would be enough to give them control, whereas Democrats need to avoid any net losses to retain their advantage.
But the fate of the Senate looks to be on a knife’s edge. Republicans have a 59-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, which is now frozen. CONTINUED
Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
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