Here are a few things to keep in mind about the next week’s midterm elections.
Let me start with a preface. The Democrats could do fairly badly on Tuesday yet still better than presidential parties have historically performed in similar situations. This could be true without the election providing a clear message about which party or ideological faction is following the best political strategy. Pundits and politicians like election results to send a clear message about which political factions are right and wrong. People want elections to provide lessons. I’m not sure this one will. We’ll see. There are many potential results “in the middle,” where Democrats lose seats but not as many as parties in their position usually do, which won’t provide an unambiguous lesson.
But regardless, the bottom line is that the president’s party always loses House seats when presidential approval is in the 40s. Since modern polling was invented, presidents have only gained seats in midterms when their approval was in the 60s. However, there are two unusual things happening in 2022 that lead me to think it is at least possible that 2022 will fit the historical pattern poorly. Or it might fit the pattern perfectly! Who knows! Either way, these two things greatly increase uncertainty. CONTINUED
Jonathan M. Ladd (Georgetown), Mischiefs of Faction
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