Historical analysis cannot tell us what will happen next, but it can provide a rough baseline for our expectations. With one week to go before votes are cast, the 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be in line with most of the midterms conducted two years after the incumbent president’s first national victory, and the results seem likely to be within the benchmark established during the past four decades.
During this period, there have been four midterms conducted under normal circumstances and two in contexts shaped by extraordinary but transitory factors. CONTINUED
William A. Galston, Brookings Institution
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