Key Points
• We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.
• A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.
• 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week.
• After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16.
• We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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