I’m cutting to the chase: We have no idea if polls are overestimating Democrats this year. I could spend this column trying to read a crystal ball, pretending I have some sort of special insight, but I don’t, and there are plenty of others doing that. We’ve gotten better this cycle at talking about uncertainty in polls and how they can’t tell you who will win the race. That hasn’t stopped anyone from using polls as forecasts, but at least the discussion is improving.
If polls overestimate Democrats again, however, I’m genuinely worried for the future of the industry—but more because of where we are as a country right now than because of the numeric value of a poll miss. …
At a less precarious moment in history, poll errors would just be poll errors. But I’m worried about what another cycle of overestimating Democrats means in those dark, conspiratorial corners of society that already believe an election was stolen with zero evidence. CONTINUED
Natalie Jackson, National Journal
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack