Pre-election polls came in for a drubbing following the 2020 election after underestimating former president Donald Trump’s vote margin by about five percentage points, the highest error in at least 20 years according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
One possible cause of 2020 errors was something the experts called nonresponse bias, with Democrats participating in polls at higher rates than Republicans. Many polls have attempted to measure and correct for partisan nonresponse, but these adjustments have been far from perfect, and it will take time to know how effective they are in reducing error over the long run.
The accuracy of 2022 polls won’t be clear until votes are counted on Nov. 8. But even imprecise polls can provide useful information about how and why voters are making their decisions this fall. Here is a guide on how to get the most out of pre-midterm 2022 polls: CONTINUED
Scott Clement, Washington Post
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