The U.S. midterm election campaign has been going on for months, with upwards of $5 billion having been spent to sway the vote. All that spending has not been wasted, but it will account for far less than more persistent factors in determining the outcome of the midterms.
One factor extends back two decades, the time at which wide swings in voter support disappeared during elections. It’s the story of party polarization, which began gradually in the 1980s and was firmly in place by the early 2000s. It was marked by a widening of the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans, but also a strengthening of partisanship and antipathy toward the opposing party.
The hostility that many partisans have for the other party is a larger driver of the vote than might be assumed. CONTINUED
Thomas E. Patterson, Journalist’s Resource, Harvard Kennedy School
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