The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see.
The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, may modify that baseline. So let’s only look at historical relationships here. CONTINUED
Charles Franklin (Marquette Law School), PollsAndVotes
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