Less than six months ago — April, to be specific — Democrats were wringing their hands about the party’s prospects in November and Republicans were counting their chickens before their midterm eggs had hatched. …
Long-term historical trends, combined with Biden’s standing in national polls, the enthusiasm gap and the public’s fear of inflation, did add up to a worst-case scenario for Democrats.
But circumstances changed, as have the parties’ prospects.
Republicans could still win control of Congress in November, but Democratic Senate seats in Arizona and New Hampshire look less vulnerable now than they did a few months ago, and the nomination of damaged GOP nominees in both House and Senate contests could produce a midterm outcome that looks very different from previous midterm results. CONTINUED
Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack