We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?”
In the Gallup poll taken that month, 35% of Americans listed the economy as one of the most important problems facing the country today, a value which is neither high nor low from a historical perspective. What does this portend for the 2022 midterm elections? The quick answer is that the economy is typically decisive for presidential elections, but midterm elections have traditionally been better described as the swinging of the pendulum, with the voters moving to moderate the party in power. CONTINUED
Andrew Gelman (Columbia) & Chris Wlezien (U. of Texas at Austin), Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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