With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly on the line, this election has become a contest about which party can more effectively frame this 2022 midterm election on terms favorable to themselves. The default scripting for midterms is as a referendum on the sitting president, particularly if his party is in control of Congress as well. The governing party has full responsibility, total culpability for anything that goes wrong. Making matters worse for the incumbent is the almost ironclad rules that members of a president’s party are less enthusiastic and less likely to vote than those in the opposition party; and that the narrow tenth of the electorate that truly is independent will be their normal fickle selves and develop buyer’s remorse.
Until this summer, this midterm precisely fit into that default position—not a good thing for President Biden and Democrats. …
The macro situation has changed dramatically over the last two months. Keep in mind, however, that the traditional beginning of the general election season is today, Labor Day, and there are still 64 days until the November 8 election. CONTINUED
Charlie Cook
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