Key Points
• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.
• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.
• The seats-in-trouble forecasts for the 2022 midterms are losses for the Democrats of 42 seats in the House of Representatives and 1 seat in the Senate. CONTINUED
James E. Campbell (U. at Buffalo, SUNY), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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