Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models

Key Points
• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.
• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model that does not incorporate such analysis. CONTINUED

Charles Tien (Hunter College) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. of Iowa), Sabato’s Crystal Ball


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