Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the party out of power has rarely succeeded. …
The last time we saw the out-party become a focal point of a midterm election was in 1998 when Republican attempts to impeach President Clinton backfired. However, Clinton was much more popular than Biden is today. And the political and economic environment was much less volatile (and less polarized) than it is today.
But, Democrats, especially incumbent Senators in key swing states, have built up solid foundation for themselves. Polling in Senate races not only finds Democrats leading in the ballot test, but also holding strong favorable ratings, especially among independent voters. CONTINUED
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report
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