… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged a 91 percent approval rating among Democrats in Gallup’s polling. In July 2022 (before his recent run of success), Biden’s Democratic approval rating was 78 percent.
Though some Democrats are down(ish) on Biden, it doesn’t indicate they plan to vote for a Republican or abstain from voting this fall. In a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 80 percent of Democrats approve of the job that Joe Biden is doing as President. However, 94 percent of Democrats say they plan to vote for a Democrat in this year’s Congressional election. That 14-point delta squares the circle between Democrats’ improving odds this fall and Biden’s current approval rating. CONTINUED
Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box
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